Aims: To assess the correlation between the histological response to preoperative chemotherapy and event-free survival (EFS) or overall survival (OS) in patients with high-grade localized osteosarcoma.

Methods: Out of 625 patients aged ≤ 40 years treated for primary high-grade osteosarcoma between 1997 and 2016, 232 patients without clinically detectable metastases at the time of diagnosis and treated with preoperative high-dose methotrexate, adriamycin and cisplatin (MAP) chemotherapy and surgery were included. Associations of chemotherapy-induced necrosis in the resected specimen and EFS or OS were assessed using Cox model and the Pearson's correlation coefficients (r). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis was applied to determine the optimal cut-off value of chemotherapy-induced necrosis for EFS and OS.

Results: OS was 74% (95% confidence interval (CI) 67 to 79) at five years. Median chemotherapy-induced necrosis was 85% (interquartile range (IQR) 50% to 97%). In multivariate Cox model, chemotherapy-induced necrosis was significantly associated with EFS and OS (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.99 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99); p < 0.001 and HR = 0.98 (95% CI 0.97 to 0.99); p < 0.001, respectively). Positive correlation was observed between chemotherapy-induced necrosis and five-year EFS and five-year OS (r = 0.91; p < 0.001, and r = 0.85; p < 0.001, respectively). The optimal cut-off value of chemotherapy-induced necrosis for five-year EFS and five-year OS was 85% and 72%, respectively.

Conclusion: Chemotherapy-induced necrosis in the resected specimen showed positive correlation with EFS and OS in patients with high-grade localized osteosarcoma after MAP chemotherapy. In our analysis, optimal cut-off values of MAP chemotherapy-induced necrosis in EFS and OS were lower than the commonly used 90%, suggesting the need for re-evaluation of the optimal cut-off value through larger, international collaborative research. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6):795-803.

Keywords: Chemotherapy-induced necrosis; MAP regimen; Osteosarcoma; Prognosis.