Roasting is a key step in the production of a high-quality coffee. Roasting degree is directly related to coffee chemical composition and may be determined objectively by weight loss after roasting. Chlorogenic acids (CGA) are thermally labile phenolic compounds that play an important role in the final cup quality and health benefits of coffee. Considering the interest in finding a reliable method to predict weight loss and CGA content in coffee, models have been developed to estimate these parameters during roasting. Weight loss was successfully modeled (r = 0.99) independent of the instant temperature. CGA degradation followed first-order Arrhenius-compliant kinetic models with good predictability (r = 0.98), especially for light to moderately dark samples. In both cases distinct models for Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora were calculated, because of differences in chemical composition and cell wall structure between these species. The proposed models may become important predictive tools in the coffee industry.