Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

RESULTS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

BACKGROUND

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND

Wide variation exists internationally for prostate cancer (PCa) rates due to differences in detection practices, treatment, and lifestyle and genetic factors.

OBJECTIVE

We present contemporary variations in PCa incidence and mortality patterns across five continents using the most recent data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

METHODS

PCa incidence and mortality estimates for 2008 from GLOBOCAN are presented. We also examine recent trends in PCa incidence rates for 40 countries and mortality rates for 53 countries from 1985 and onward via join-point analyses using an augmented version of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and the World Health Organization mortality database.

RESULTS

Estimated PCa incidence rates remain most elevated in the highest resource counties worldwide including North America, Oceania, and western and northern Europe. Mortality rates tend to be higher in less developed regions of the world including parts of South America, the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan Africa. Increasing PCa incidence rates during the most recent decade were observed in 32 of the 40 countries examined, whereas trends tended to stabilize in 8 countries. In contrast, PCa mortality rates decreased in 27 of the 53 countries under study, whereas rates increased in 16 and remained stable in 10 countries.

CONCLUSIONS

PCa incidence rates increased in nearly all countries considered in this analysis except in a few high-income countries. In contrast, the increase in PCa mortality rates mainly occurred in lower resource settings, with declines largely confined to high-resource countries.

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

METHODS

We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

RESULTS

Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

BACKGROUND

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The worldwide prevalence of infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) in women without cervical abnormalities is 11-12% with higher rates in sub-Saharan Africa (24%), Eastern Europe (21%) and Latin America (16%). The two most prevalent types are HPV16 (3.2%) and HPV18 (1.4%). Prevalence increases in women with cervical pathology in proportion to the severity of the lesion reaching around 90% in women with grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and invasive cancer. HPV infection has been identified as a definite human carcinogen for six types of cancer: cervix, penis, vulva, vagina, anus and oropharynx (including the base of the tongue and tonsils). Estimates of the incidence of these cancers for 2008 due to HPV infection have been calculated globally. Of the estimated 12.7 million cancers occurring in 2008, 610,000 (Population Attributable Fraction [PAF]=4.8%) could be attributed to HPV infection. The PAF varies substantially by geographic region and level of development, increasing to 6.9% in less developed regions of the world, 14.2% in sub-Saharan Africa and 15.5% in India, compared with 2.1% in more developed regions, 1.6% in Northern America and 1.2% in Australia/New Zealand. Cervical cancer, for which the PAF is estimated to be 100%, accounted for 530,000 (86.9%) of the HPV attributable cases with the other five cancer types accounting for the residual 80,000 cancers. Cervical cancer is the third most common female malignancy and shows a strong association with level of development, rates being at least four-fold higher in countries defined within the low ranking of the Human Development Index (HDI) compared with those in the very high category. Similar disparities are evident for 5-year survival-less than 20% in low HDI countries and more than 65% in very high countries. There are five-fold or greater differences in incidence between world regions. In those countries for which reliable temporal data are available, incidence rates appear to be consistently declining by approximately 2% per annum. There is, however, a lack of information from low HDI countries where screening is less likely to have been successfully implemented. Estimates of the projected incidence of cervical cancer in 2030, based solely on demographic factors, indicate a 2% increase in the global burden of cervical cancer, i.e., in balance with the current rate of decline. Due to the relative small numbers involved, it is difficult to discern temporal trends for the other cancers associated with HPV infection. Genital warts represent a sexually transmitted benign condition caused by HPV infection, especially HPV6 and HPV11. Reliable surveillance figures are difficult to obtain but data from developed countries indicate an annual incidence of 0.1 to 0.2% with a peak occurring at teenage and young adult ages. This article forms part of a special supplement entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases" Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012.

OBJECTIVE

Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been identified as the cause of the increasing oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence in some countries. To investigate whether this represents a global phenomenon, we evaluated incidence trends for OPCs and oral cavity cancers (OCCs) in 23 countries across four continents.

METHODS

We used data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database Volumes VI to IX (years 1983 to 2002). Using age-period-cohort modeling, incidence trends for OPCs were compared with those of OCCs and lung cancers to delineate the potential role of HPV vis-à-vis smoking on incidence trends. Analyses were country specific and sex specific.

RESULTS

OPC incidence significantly increased during 1983 to 2002 predominantly in economically developed countries. Among men, OPC incidence significantly increased in the United States, Australia, Canada, Japan, and Slovakia, despite nonsignificant or significantly decreasing incidence of OCCs. In contrast, among women, in all countries with increasing OPC incidence (Denmark, Estonia, France, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland, and United Kingdom), there was a concomitant increase in incidence of OCCs. Although increasing OPC incidence among men was accompanied by decreasing lung cancer incidence, increasing incidence among women was generally accompanied by increasing lung cancer incidence. The magnitude of increase in OPC incidence among men was significantly higher at younger ages (< 60 years) than older ages in the United States, Australia, Canada, Slovakia, Denmark, and United Kingdom.

CONCLUSIONS

OPC incidence significantly increased during 1983 to 2002 predominantly in developed countries and at younger ages. These results underscore a potential role for HPV infection on increasing OPC incidence, particularly among men.

BACKGROUND

Country comparisons that consider the effect of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes are needed for health-care planning. We calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to estimate the global burden of cancer in 2008.

METHODS

We used population-based data, mostly from cancer registries, for incidence, mortality, life expectancy, disease duration, and age at onset and death, alongside proportions of patients who were treated and living with sequelae or regarded as cured, to calculate years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). We used YLLs and YLDs to derive DALYs for 27 sites of cancers in 184 countries in 12 world regions. Estimates were grouped into four categories based on a country's human development index (HDI). We applied zero discounting and uniform age weighting, and age-standardised rates to enable cross-country and regional comparisons.

RESULTS

Worldwide, an estimated 169·3 million years of healthy life were lost because of cancer in 2008. Colorectal, lung, breast, and prostate cancers were the main contributors to total DALYs in most world regions and caused 18-50% of the total cancer burden. We estimated an additional burden of 25% from infection-related cancers (liver, stomach, and cervical) in sub-Saharan Africa, and 27% in eastern Asia. We noted substantial global differences in the cancer profile of DALYs by country and region; however, YLLs were the most important component of DALYs in all countries and for all cancers, and contributed to more than 90% of the total burden. Nonetheless, low-resource settings had consistently higher YLLs (as a proportion of total DALYs) than did high-resource settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Age-adjusted DALYs lost from cancer are substantial, irrespective of world region. The consistently larger proportions of YLLs in low HDI than in high HDI countries indicate substantial inequalities in prognosis after diagnosis, related to degree of human development. Therefore, radical improvement in cancer care is needed in low-resource countries.

BACKGROUND

Dutch Scientific Society, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and International Agency for research on Cancer.

OBJECTIVE

Breast cancer is a leading cause of premature mortality among US women. Early detection has been shown to be associated with reduced breast cancer morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To update the American Cancer Society (ACS) 2003 breast cancer screening guideline for women at average risk for breast cancer.

METHODS

The ACS commissioned a systematic evidence review of the breast cancer screening literature to inform the update and a supplemental analysis of mammography registry data to address questions related to the screening interval. Formulation of recommendations was based on the quality of the evidence and judgment (incorporating values and preferences) about the balance of benefits and harms.

RESULTS

Screening mammography in women aged 40 to 69 years is associated with a reduction in breast cancer deaths across a range of study designs, and inferential evidence supports breast cancer screening for women 70 years and older who are in good health. Estimates of the cumulative lifetime risk of false-positive examination results are greater if screening begins at younger ages because of the greater number of mammograms, as well as the higher recall rate in younger women. The quality of the evidence for overdiagnosis is not sufficient to estimate a lifetime risk with confidence. Analysis examining the screening interval demonstrates more favorable tumor characteristics when premenopausal women are screened annually vs biennially. Evidence does not support routine clinical breast examination as a screening method for women at average risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The ACS recommends that women with an average risk of breast cancer should undergo regular screening mammography starting at age 45 years (strong recommendation). Women aged 45 to 54 years should be screened annually (qualified recommendation). Women 55 years and older should transition to biennial screening or have the opportunity to continue screening annually (qualified recommendation). Women should have the opportunity to begin annual screening between the ages of 40 and 44 years (qualified recommendation). Women should continue screening mammography as long as their overall health is good and they have a life expectancy of 10 years or longer (qualified recommendation). The ACS does not recommend clinical breast examination for breast cancer screening among average-risk women at any age (qualified recommendation).

CONCLUSIONS

These updated ACS guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations for breast cancer screening for women at average risk of breast cancer. These recommendations should be considered by physicians and women in discussions about breast cancer screening.

BACKGROUND

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) incidence rates are higher in developed countries, where up to half of the cases are discovered incidentally. Declining mortality trends have been reported in highly developed countries since the 1990s.

OBJECTIVE

To compare and interpret geographic variations and trends in the incidence and mortality of RCC worldwide in the context of controlling the future disease burden.

METHODS

We used data from GLOBOCAN, the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, and the World Health Organisation mortality database to compare incidence and mortality rates in more than 40 countries worldwide. We analysed incidence and mortality trends in the last 10 yr using joinpoint analyses of the age-standardised rates (ASRs).

RESULTS

RCC incidence in men varied in ASRs (World standard population) from approximately 1/100,000 in African countries to >15/100,000 in several Northern and Eastern European countries and among US blacks. Similar patterns were observed for women, although incidence rates were commonly half of those for men. Incidence rates are increasing in most countries, most prominently in Latin America. Although recent mortality trends are stable in many countries, significant declines were observed in Western and Northern Europe, the USA, and Australia. Southern European men appear to have the least favourable RCC mortality trends.

CONCLUSIONS

Although RCC incidence is still increasing in most countries, stabilisation of mortality trends has been achieved in many highly developed countries. There are marked absolute differences and opposing RCC mortality trends in countries categorised as areas of higher versus lower human development, and these gaps appear to be widening.

RESULTS

Renal cell cancer is becoming more commonly diagnosed worldwide in both men and women. Mortality is decreasing in the most developed settings, but not in low- and middle-income countries, where access to and the availability of optimal therapies are likely to be limited.

The incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma has steadily increased over the past 50 years in predominately fair-skinned populations. This increase is reported to have leveled off recently in several Northern and Western European countries, Australia, New Zealand and in North America. We studied the global patterns and time trends in incidence of melanoma by country and sex, with a focus on and age- and cohort-specific variations. We analyzed the incidence data from 39 population-based cancer registries, examining all-ages and age-truncated standardized incidence rates of melanoma, estimating the annual percentage change and incidence rate ratios from age-period-cohort models. Incidence rates of melanoma continue to rise in most European countries (primarily Southern and Eastern Europe), whereas in Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., Canada, Israel and Norway, rates have become rather stable in recent years. Indications of a stabilization or decreasing trend were observed mainly in the youngest age group (25-44 years). Rates have been rising steadily in generations born up to the end of the 1940s, followed by a stabilization or decline in rates for more recently born cohorts in Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., Canada and Norway. In addition to the birth cohort effect, there was a suggestion of a period-related influence on melanoma trends in certain populations. Although our findings provide support that primary and secondary prevention can halt and reverse the observed increasing burden of melanoma, they also indicate that those prevention measures require further endorsement in many countries.

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer trends in a given country mainly depend on the existence of effective screening programmes and time changes in disease risk factors, notably exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV). Screening primarily influences variations by period of diagnosis, whereas changes in risk factors chiefly manifest themselves as variations in risk across successive birth cohorts of women.

METHODS

We assessed trends in cervical cancer across 38 countries in five continents, age group 30-74 years, using age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) and age-period-cohort (APC) models. Non-identifiability in APC models was circumvented by making assumptions based on a consistent relationship between age and cervical cancer incidence (i.e. approximately constant rates after age 45 years).

RESULTS

ASRs decreased in several countries, except in most of Eastern European populations, Thailand as well as Uganda, although the direction and magnitude of period and birth cohort effects varied substantially. Strong downward trends in cervical cancer risk by period were found in the highest-income countries, whereas no clear changes by period were found in lower-resourced settings. Successive generations of women born after 1940 or 1950 exhibited either an increase in risk of cervical cancer (in most European countries, Japan, China), no substantial changes (North America and Australia) or a decrease (Ecuador and India).

CONCLUSIONS

In countries where effective screening has been in place for a long time the consequences of underlying increases in cohort-specific risk were largely avoided. In the absence of screening, cohort-led increases or, stable, cervical cancer ASRs were observed. Our study underscores the importance of strengthening screening efforts and augmenting existing cancer control efforts with HPV vaccination, notably in those countries where unfavourable cohort effects are continuing or emerging.

BACKGROUND

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF).

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death among women worldwide. Herein, we examine global trends in female breast cancer rates using the most up-to-date data available.

METHODS

Breast cancer incidence and mortality estimates were obtained from GLOBOCAN 2012 (globocan.iarc.fr). We analyzed trends from 1993 onward using incidence data from 39 countries from the International Agency for Research on Cancer and mortality data from 57 countries from the World Health Organization.

RESULTS

Of 32 countries with incidence and mortality data, rates in the recent period diverged-with incidence increasing and mortality decreasing-in nine countries mainly in Northern/Western Europe. Both incidence and mortality decreased in France, Israel, Italy, Norway, and Spain. In contrast, incidence and death rates both increased in Colombia, Ecuador, and Japan. Death rates also increased in Brazil, Egypt, Guatemala, Kuwait, Mauritius, Mexico, and Moldova.

CONCLUSIONS

Breast cancer mortality rates are decreasing in most high-income countries, despite increasing or stable incidence rates. In contrast and of concern are the increasing incidence and mortality rates in a number of countries, particularly those undergoing rapid changes in human development. Wide variations in breast cancer rates and trends reflect differences in patterns of risk factors and access to and availability of early detection and timely treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased awareness about breast cancer and the benefits of early detection and improved access to treatment must be prioritized to successfully implement breast cancer control programs, particularly in transitioning countries.

UNASSIGNED

Cancers of the corpus uteri-primarily of the endometrium-rank as the sixth most common neoplasm in women worldwide. Analyses of the global patterns and trends of uterine cancer rates are needed in view of the ongoing obesity epidemic, a major risk factor for the disease.

UNASSIGNED

Data on endometrial cancer (ICD-10 C54) incidence from population-based cancer registries in 43 populations, published in CI5plus or by registries, were extracted for 1978 to 2013. Age-standardized incidence rates were computed for all ages and for pre- (25-49 years) and postmenopausal ages (50 years and older). Temporal trends were assessed with Joinpoint analysis, and the effects of birth cohort and year of diagnosis on the overall trends were examined using age-period-cohort modeling.

UNASSIGNED

In 2006 to 2007, rates varied 10-fold across countries. The highest rates were in North America, Eastern and Northern Europe (19 cases per 100 000 among whites in the United States, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 18 to 20, and in Slovakia, 95% CI = 18 to 21), and the lowest rates were in middle-income countries (South Africa 1, 95% CI = 0 to 3, and India 3, 95% CI = 3 to 4). Rates during the most recent 10 data years increased in 26 of the 43 populations considered in this study, with South Africa and several countries in Asia showing the largest increase. The risk of endometrial cancer increased both in consecutive generations and over time in 11 of 23 populations, with the increases more pronounced in Japan, the Philippines, Belarus, Singapore, Costa Rica, and New Zealand.

UNASSIGNED

Endometrial cancer incidence rates increased over time and in successive generations in several countries, especially in those countries with rapid socioeconomic transitions.

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported substantial worldwide regional variations in bladder cancer (BCa) incidence and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To describe contemporary international variations in BCa incidence and mortality rates and trends using the most recent data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

METHODS

Estimated 2008 BCa incidence and mortality rates for each country by sex were obtained from GLOBOCAN. Recent trends in incidence for 43 countries and in mortality for 64 countries were assessed by join-point model using data from the IARC's Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and from the World Health Organisation's mortality database, respectively.

RESULTS

The highest incidence rates for both men and women are found in Europe, the United States, and Egypt, and the lowest rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and South America. Mortality rates are highest in parts of Europe and northern Africa and lowest in Asia, Central America, and middle Africa. Incidence rates among men decreased in 11 of 43 countries (46 registries) (North America, western and northern Europe), remained stable in 20, and increased in 12 countries (southern, central, and eastern Europe). Among women, incidence rates decreased in 10 countries, stabilised in 22 countries, and increased in 12 countries. Mortality rates among men decreased in 32 of 65 countries (throughout all world regions except Central and South America), stabilised in 30 countries, and increased in 3 (Romania, Slovenia, and Cuba). Among women, mortality rates decreased in 24 countries, remained stable in 36 countries, and increased in 5 countries (central and eastern Europe).

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence and mortality rates in general decreased in most Western countries but increased in some eastern European and developing countries. These patterns in part may reflect differences in the stage and extent of the tobacco epidemic, changes in coding practices, prevalence of schistosomiasis (Africa), and occupational exposure.

Prostate cancer is a significant public health burden and a major cause of morbidity and mortality among men worldwide. Analyzing geographic patterns and temporal trends may help identify high-risk populations, suggest the degree of PSA testing, and provide clues to etiology. We used incidence data available from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and certain cancer registries for 43 populations across five continents during a median period of 24 years. Trends in overall prostate cancer rates showed five distinct patterns ranging from generally monotonic increases to peaking of rates followed by declines, which coincide somewhat with changes in the prevalence of PSA testing. Trends in age-specific rates generally mirrored those in the overall rates, with several notable exceptions. For populations where overall rates increased rapidly and then peaked, exemplified in North America and Oceania, the highest incidence tended to be most pronounced and occurred during earlier calendar years among older men compared with younger ones. For populations with almost continual increases in overall rates, exemplified in Eastern Europe and Asia, peaks were evident among men aged ≥ 75 years in many instances. Rates for ages 45-54 years did not clearly stabilize or decline in the majority of studied populations. Global geographic variation remained substantial for both overall and age-specific incidence rates regardless of levels of PSA testing, with the lowest rates consistently in Asia. Explanations for the persistent geographic differences and the continuing increases of especially early-onset prostate cancer remain unclear.

Each year the American Cancer Society (ACS) publishes a summary of its guidelines for early cancer detection, data and trends in cancer screening rates, and select issues related to cancer screening. In this issue of the journal, we summarize current ACS cancer screening guidelines, including the update of the breast cancer screening guideline, discuss quality issues in colorectal cancer screening and new developments in lung cancer screening, and provide the latest data on utilization of cancer screening from the National Health Interview Survey.

BACKGROUND

Testicular cancer (TC) is the most common cancer in men aged 15-44 yr in many countries that score high or very high on the Human Development Index (HDI). Despite the very good prognosis for TC, wide variations in mortality rates have been reported internationally.

OBJECTIVE

To describe and contrast global variations and recent trends in TC incidence and mortality rates.

METHODS

To compare TC incidence and mortality rates, we used GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates. We used the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series to analyse recent trends in TC incidence in 41 countries by way of joinpoint analysis. To examine recent trends in mortality, we used the World Health Organisation mortality database.

RESULTS

Northern Europe remains the highest TC incidence area, with the highest rates observed in Norway and Denmark. Incidence rates continue to increase in most countries worldwide, more markedly in Southern Europe and Latin America, while attenuating in Northern Europe, the United States, and Australia. Mortality from TC shows a different pattern, with higher rates in some countries of medium to high HDI. The highest mortality rates were seen in Chile and Latvia, as well as in selected Central European and Eastern European countries. In high-income countries, TC mortality rates are declining or stable at very low levels of magnitude, while no significant decreases were observed in middle-income regions in Latin America and Asia.

CONCLUSIONS

The rises in TC incidence appear to be recently attenuating in countries with the highest HDIs, with corresponding mortality rates either continuing to decline or stabilising at very low levels. In a number of countries transiting towards higher levels of development, the TC incidence is increasing while mortality rates are stable or increasing.

RESULTS

In this study we looked at international testicular cancer trends. We found that testicular cancer is becoming more common in low- and middle-income countries, where the optimal treatment might not yet be available.

BACKGROUND

Testicular cancer mainly affects White Caucasian populations, accounts for 1% of all male cancers, and is frequently the most common malignancy among young adult men. In light of the escalating rates of testicular cancer incidence in Europe, and in support of future planning to ensure optimal care of patients with what can be a curable disease, we predict the future burden in 40 European countries around 2025.

METHODS

Current observed trends were extrapolated with the NORDPRED model to estimate the future burden of testicular cancer in the context of changes in risk versus changes in demographics.

RESULTS

Despite substantial heterogeneity in the rates, the vast majority of European countries will see an increasing burden over the next two decades. We estimate there will be 23,000 new cases of testicular cancer annually in Europe by 2025, a rise of 24% from 2005. Some of the most rapid increases in testicular cancer are observed in Croatia, Slovenia, Italy and Spain, and a transition is underway, whereby recent attenuations and declines in rates in certain high-risk countries in Northern Europe contrast with the increasing trends and escalating burden in Southern Europe. According to our estimates for 2025, around one in 100 men will be diagnosed with the disease annually in the highest risk countries of Europe (Croatia, Slovenia and Norway).

CONCLUSIONS

Elucidating the key determinants of testicular cancer and the equitable provision of optimal care for patients across Europe are priorities given the steady rise in the number of patients by 2025, and an absence of primary prevention opportunities.

BACKGROUND

None.

Previous studies have reported rapid increases in anal cancer incidence rates in seven high-income countries in North America, Europe and Oceania. There is very limited information on whether this pattern is replicated in other parts of the world. In this study, we examine recent trends in anal cancer incidence in 18 countries worldwide.

We calculated age-standardized incidence rates for anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) and anal adenocarcinoma (AAC) for a minimum of 13 years through to 2007, using data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, and applied joinpoint regression models to assess changes in incidence rates. We also conducted an extended analysis of the data from the USA through to 2012.

ASCC was the main histological subtype in most of the countries considered in this analysis. The incidence of ASCC increased in both men and women in several high-income countries, including Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, Netherlands, the UK and the USA, whereas it increased only in women in Colombia, Estonia, the Russian Federation, Slovakia and Switzerland. Conversely, there was little change in the incidence of ASCC in either men or women in India, Israel, Japan, Singapore and Spain. The incidence rates of AAC decreased or were stable in most populations.

The ASCC incidence rates increased in both men and women or in women in all countries included in this study, except Asian countries and Spain, where the rates remained unchanged. Population-based preventive measures, including human papillomavirus vaccination and advocacy for safe sexual behaviours, may contribute to curbing the surging burden of the disease.

BACKGROUND

Smoking prevalence has been declining in men all over Europe, while the trend varies in European regions among women. To study the impact of past smoking prevalence, we present a comprehensive overview of the most recent trends in incidence, during 1988-2010, in 26 countries, of four of the major cancers in the respiratory and upper gastro-intestinal tract associated with tobacco smoking.

METHODS

Data from 47 population-based cancer registries for lung, laryngeal, oral cavity and pharyngeal, and oesophageal cancer cases were obtained from the newly developed data repository within the European Cancer Observatory (http://eco.iarc.fr/). Truncated age-standardised incidence rates (35-74 years) by calendar year, average annual percentage change in incidence over 1998-2007 were calculated. Smoking prevalence in selected countries was extracted from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Health Organization databases.

RESULTS

There remained great but changing variation in the incidence rates of tobacco-related cancers by European region. Generally, the high rates among men have been declining, while the lower rates among women are increasing, resulting in convergence of the rates. Female lung cancer rates were above male rates in Denmark, Iceland and Sweden (35-64 years). In lung and laryngeal cancers, where smoking is the main risk factor, rates were highest in central and eastern Europe, southern Europe and the Baltic countries. Despite a lowering of female smoking prevalence, female incidence rates of lung, laryngeal and oral cavity cancers increased in most parts of Europe, but were stable in the Baltic countries. Mixed trends emerged in oesophageal cancer, probably explained by differing risk factors for the two main histological subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

This data repository offers the opportunity to show the variety of incidence trends by sex among European countries. The diverse patterns of trends reflect varied exposure to risk factors. Given the heavy cancer burden attributed to tobacco and the fact that tobacco use is entirely preventable, tobacco control remains a top priority in Europe. Prevention efforts should be intensified in central and eastern Europe, southern Europe and the Baltic countries.

This article provides an overview of cervical cancer and other human papillomavirus (HPV)-related diseases in Central and Eastern Europe (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the Former Yugoslav Republic [FYR] of Macedonia) and Central Asia (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Moldova, the Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan). Despite two- to three-fold variations, cervical cancer incidence rates are high in many countries in these two regions relative to other populations on the European and Asian continents. In Central and Eastern Europe, Romania and the FYR of Macedonia had the highest rates in 2008 alongside Bulgaria, Lithuania and Serbia, while in Central Asia, rates are elevated in Kyrgyzstan (the highest rates across the regions), Kazakhstan and Armenia. In each of these countries, at least one woman in 50 develops cervical cancer before the age of 75. The high cervical cancer burden is exacerbated by a lack of effective screening and an increasing risk of death from the disease among young women, as observed in Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. In several countries with longstanding cancer registries of reasonable quality (Belarus, Estonia and the Russian Federation), there are clear birth cohort effects; the risk of onset of cervical cancer is increasing in successive generations of women born from around 1940-50, a general phenomenon indicative of changing sexual behaviour and increasing risk of persistent HPV infection. There are limited data for other HPV-related cancers and other diseases at present in these countries. While options for reducing the HPV-related disease burden are resource-dependent, universal HPV vaccination with enhanced screening would maximally reduce the burden of cervical cancer in the countries within the two regions. It is hoped that the expanded second edition of the European Guidelines will finally kick-start effective interventions in many of these countries that still lack organised programmes. This article forms part of a regional report entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases in the Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region" Vaccine Volume 31, Supplement 7, 2013. Updates of the progress in the field are presented in a separate monograph entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases" Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012.

BACKGROUND

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) link data on disease occurrence to health outcomes, and they are a useful aid in establishing country-specific agendas regarding cancer control. The variables required to compute DALYs are however multiple and not readily available in many countries. We propose a methodology that derives global DALYs and validate variables and DALYs based on data from various cancer registries.

METHODS

We estimated DALYs for four countries (Norway, Bulgaria, India and Uganda) within each category of the human development index (HDI). The following sources (indicators) were used: Globocan2008 (incidence and mortality), various cancer registries (proportion cured, proportion treated and duration of disease), treatment guidelines (duration of treatment), specific burden of disease studies (sequelae and disability weights), alongside expert opinion. We obtained country-specific population estimates and identified resource levels using the HDI, DALYs are computed as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disabilities.

RESULTS

Using mortality:incidence ratios to estimate country-specific survival, and by applying the human development index we derived country-specific estimates of the proportion cured and the proportion treated. The fit between the estimates and observed data from the cancer registries was relatively good. The final DALY estimates were similar to those computed using observed values in Norway, and in WHO's earlier global burden of disease study. Marked cross-country differences in the patterns of DALYs by cancer sites were observed. In Norway and Bulgaria, breast, colorectal, prostate and lung cancer were the main contributors to DALYs, representing 54% and 45%, respectively, of the totals. These cancers contributed only 27% and 18%, respectively, of total DALYs in India and Uganda.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach resulted in a series of variables that can be used to estimate country-specific DALYs, enabling global estimates of DALYs and international comparisons that support priorities in cancer control.

UNASSIGNED

State-specific information about the health burden of smoking is valuable because state-level initiatives are at the forefront of tobacco control. Smoking-attributable cancer mortality estimates are currently available nationally and by cancer, but not by state.

UNASSIGNED

To calculate the proportion of cancer deaths among adults 35 years and older that were attributable to cigarette smoking in 2014 in each state and the District of Columbia.

UNASSIGNED

The population-attributable fraction (PAF) of cancer deaths due to cigarette smoking was computed using relative risks for 12 smoking-related cancers (acute myeloid leukemia and cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx; esophagus; stomach; colorectum; liver; pancreas; larynx; trachea, lung, and bronchus; cervix uteri; kidney and renal pelvis; and urinary bladder) from large US prospective studies and state-specific smoking prevalence data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

UNASSIGNED

The PAF of cancer deaths due to cigarette smoking in each US state and the District of Columbia.

UNASSIGNED

We estimate that at least 167 133 cancer deaths in the United States in 2014 (28.6% of all cancer deaths; 95% CI, 28.2%-28.8%) were attributable to cigarette smoking. Among men, the proportion of cancer deaths attributable to smoking ranged from a low of 21.8% in Utah (95% CI, 19.9%-23.5%) to a high of 39.5% in Arkansas (95% CI, 36.9%-41.7%), but was at least 30% in every state except Utah. Among women, the proportion ranged from 11.1% in Utah (95% CI, 9.6%-12.3%) to 29.0% in Kentucky (95% CI, 27.2%-30.7%) and was at least 20% in all states except Utah, California, and Hawaii. Nine of the top 10 ranked states for men and 6 of the top 10 ranked states for women were located in the South. In men, smoking explained nearly 40% of cancer deaths in the top 5 ranked states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Kentucky). In women, smoking explained more than 26% of all cancer deaths in the top 5 ranked states, which included 3 Southern states (Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee), and 2 Western states (Alaska and Nevada).

UNASSIGNED

The proportion of cancer deaths attributable to cigarette smoking varies substantially across states and is highest in the South, where up to 40% of cancer deaths in men are caused by smoking. Increasing tobacco control funding, implementing innovative new strategies, and strengthening tobacco control policies and programs, federally and in all states and localities, might further increase smoking cessation, decrease initiation, and reduce the future burden of morbidity and mortality associated with smoking-related cancers.

OBJECTIVE

Death rates for lung cancer, the leading cause of cancer death in the USA, vary substantially by the level of education at the national level, but this has not previously been analyzed by state.

METHODS

We examined age-standardized lung cancer death rates by educational attainment, race/ethnicity, and state in men and women (aged 25-64 years) in the USA in 2008-2010 and estimated the proportion of potentially avoidable premature lung cancer deaths for each state if rates were reduced to those achieved among more educated non-Hispanic whites in five states with low lung cancer rates, using data on 134,869 lung cancer deaths.

RESULTS

Age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates differed substantially by state and education level. Among non-Hispanic white men, for example, rates per 100,000 ranged from below 6 in more educated men (≥16 years of education) in Utah, Colorado, and Montana to >75 in less educated men (≤12 years of education) in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Kentucky. An estimated 73 % of lung cancer deaths in the USA (32,700 deaths annually in 25- to 64-year-old individuals alone) would be prevented. This proportion was ≥85 % among men in Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, and Mississippi, and ≥80 % among women in West Virginia and Kentucky.

CONCLUSIONS

Most premature lung cancer deaths in the USA are potentially avoidable. As most of these deaths can be attributed to smoking, our findings underscore the importance of increasing tobacco control measures in high-risk states and targeting tobacco control interventions to less educated populations in all states.